Current and predicted vagrancy conditions

Geomagnetic Vagrancy Conditions

Geomagnetic vagrancy conditions in Spring 2023 have been High, and are expected to Decrease over the next 2 weeks. Conditions are determined here by the factors that influence a bird’s ability to use the Earth’s geomagnetic field to navigate during migration.

Species Richness Trends

Factors underpinning vagrancy

The chance to see a rare bird is also determined by seasonality. Here, the relative number of species for this week is indicated by color scale, and +, - and = signs indicate where richness is increasing, decreasing, or staying about the same.

Vagrancy Conditions

Geomagnetic Disturbance

Solar Activity

About

This dashboard is designed to be used as a tool for US birders and twitchers to evaluate the likelihood of seeing a rare bird. This tool integrates three known factors influencing vagrancy - current space weather conditions, seasonality, and demography - to predict the likelihood of seeing a rare bird. Please send questions/comments/suggestions to rarebirdforecast@gmail.com